Sports Betting Manifesto & Elo Repo

The underlying dynamics of the sports betting industry are governed by the same principle as the financial markets: uncertainty stemming from incomplete information. Sports matches are incredibly complex interactions predicated on an (uncountable?) number of minute parameters and initial conditions, making it virtually impossible to deterministically model future events more than a few seconds in advance. Instead, we model this complexity with statistics, assigning probabilities to outcomes as a way of aggregating events and casting this computational irreducibility as “random” probabilistic events.